1. Device wars to intensify
With the demand for mobile devices so high, the device wars will only intensify over the next 12 months. Recently we've seen the launch of the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini, new Nexus devices from Google and Galaxy and Note devices from Samsung, and Microsoft's foray into the market with the launch of its Surface tablets in concert with its touchscreen-centric Windows 8 operating system. As the battle begins to move to enterprise – thanks in part to the BYOD ('Bring Your Own Device') to work trend – the focus will move away from the 'look and feel' of these devices, to the software and services that power them.
Prediction: Competition in the mobile device market will intensify, with software and services becoming the main battleground. NDP predicts that sales of tablet devices will soon overtake sales of laptop PCs, while according to Strategy Analytics, the number of smartphones worldwide has just passed one billion. Rapid hardware and software innovation, downward price pressure, ever-faster telecommunication networks and closer integration with ubiquitous web services will ensure that consumers will ultimately triumph in the device wars.
2. BYOD growth will need to be managed by enterprises
BYOD is reflective of the current shift to more flexible work practices. Its uptake has also been assisted by the fact that mobile devices are increasingly better equipped for use in the corporate sphere. However BYOD raises a number of security and legal issues for enterprise. Data security and confidentiality are of concern, particularly with devices that readily connect to public clouds (think iCloud, Dropbox and many others besides). Intellectual property protection is another issue, as BYOD may blur the line between what someone does in his or her personal capacity and in their capacity as an employee. Other issues include employee privacy, software licensing, insurance and employment issues. Nevertheless, it's clear that many employees bring their own devices to work regardless of whether their employer has a formal BYOD policy in place.
Prediction: The uptake of BYOD will continue to increase over the next 12 months. As it does, expect to hear more about the problems and risks facing enterprises. Gartner predicts that BYOD devices will be affected by malware at more than double the rate of corporate owned devices. Organisations need to get on the front foot and ensure that they have effective BYOD policies and technical controls in place to regulate the use of BYOD devices within their workplace and on their internal network and systems.
3. Uptake of social media policies as legal and reputational risks start to hit home
These days businesses have a lot to lose by ignoring social media. Not only do consumers expect businesses to have a social media presence, but their competitors are already there, taking advantage of the benefits of building an online community of advocates around their products and services. As organisations begin to feel their way around social media platforms, they need to be aware of how the law is responding to new media. Last year the Federal Court found that a company was responsible for misleading third party content posted on its Facebook page once it had become aware of that content and chose to do nothing about it.[2] A determination of the Advertising Standards Bureau earlier this year went even further, stating that organisations are required to actively monitor their social media pages.[3] And most recently, the Supreme Court found Google to be liable in defamation in connection with content appearing on its search results pages.[4]
And it's not just third party content that is proving problematic. Employee use of social media has thrown up challenges for employers and the courts alike. In a number of recent incidents, employees have used Facebook and other social media platforms to post negative comments about their employer, their co-workers and their employer's customers – apparently forgetting that social media is a very public forum. In some instances, such conduct has led to termination of employment.
Prediction: Expect there to be more developments in 2013 in the areas of responsibility for third party content and employee use of social media. As the legal and reputational risks hit home, there will be an increased focus by organisations on implementing and enforcing social media policies. This will include policies governing how people within the organisation should use social media (both during and after work hours), as well as policies directed at third parties, such as 'house rules' on company-branded social media pages setting boundaries for acceptable third party content.
4. Patent litigation fuels trend away from monopoly rights of patentees
Patent infringement litigation exploded in the mobile space around the world in the last 18 months. The most well known example is, of course, the Apple v Samsung proceedings in courts across the EU, the United States and elsewhere (including Australia). But what will be the fallout? Some tech experts suggest it will mean longer waits for new product launches, as developers are forced to start from scratch rather than building on existing technology. From a policy perspective, these lawsuits are fuelling the push towards providing for more equitable access to patented inventions. There is growing concern that patent law (particularly in the US) may have gone too far in protecting 'look and feel', rather than the actual inventiveness. The effect of this, along with the expense of drawn out patent infringement litigation, is potentially stifling on competition and innovation.
Prediction: 2013 will see a trend away from a focus on the monopoly rights of patent holders in Australia, towards more equitable access to patented inventions. This has already begun to some extent with the 'Raising the Bar' reforms to the Patents Act 1990 (Cth). Watch out for the Productivity Commission's review of the current regime for the compulsory licensing of patents (which is widely regarded as being ineffective). The final report is due out in March 2013. Our tip is that we could be looking at an interoperability exception to patent infringement (similar to the exception that exists for copyright).
5. ISPs and copyright owners unlikely to agree on solution to online copyright infringement but promise of more legitimate content
Copyright owners and ISPs have been in discussions mediated by the Federal Attorney General for over a year now, in a drawn out attempt to develop an industry scheme to address online copyright infringement. However, the High Court's recent decision in Roadshow Films v iiNet, where it held that ISP iiNet had not authorised copyright infringement by its subscribers in their downloading of movies and TV shows, has left ISPs less willing to compromise in these consultations. In Roadshow Films v iiNet, the High Court stated that the issue of illegal downloading would be best addressed by legislative change, and noted that the government has in the past been receptive to making amendments to the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) as new technologies emerge. However, even with government intervention, the problem of coming up with a workable monitoring and enforcement scheme remains. Many have suggested that the answer lies not in enforcement or litigation, but in making the content users want available quickly, in the format they want, and at a reasonable price. This might sound simplistic, but one need only look at the success of iTunes, and more recently Netflix, Spotify and Pandora, to see that consumers are willing to pay for reasonably priced content.
Prediction: We're unlikely to see an industry or legislative scheme relating to online copyright infringement up and running in the next 12 months. The current ALRC inquiry into Copyright and the Digital Economy is not due to report back to the Attorney General until November 2013, and discussions between copyright owners and ISPs have all but stalled. However, expect to see ISPs (and others) working on making legitimate content more widely available. Recent comments by the managing director of the Australian Federation Against Copyright Theft suggest that rights holders may be beginning to warm to this approach.
6. Cloud technology to mature and offer more enterprise-grade services
Cloud services offer enterprise a range of advantages including flexibility, workforce mobility, reduced capital costs, and the freeing up resources which can be reallocated to the core activities of the business. However concerns such as privacy, lack of control and performance have so far held some businesses back from embracing the technology. Yet approximately 58 percent of Australian organisations have moved to the cloud in some manner, meaning that many have found that the benefits, along with the dangers of being left behind by their competitors, outweigh these risks. With service providers already working on addressing the concerns of organisations considering adopting the cloud, we can expect the scale to tip further in this direction over the next 12 months.
Prediction: Cloud services will mature in 2013 with an increase in enterprise-grade service offerings. Gartner predicts that in the next year spending on cloud technologies in Australia will increase by 22 percent, up to more than $3 billion. In particular more businesses will be moving their IT infrastructure offsite and turning to co-location services.
7. Potential of big data beginning to be harnessed by enterprise
Big data refers to unstructured data that is either too big, too fast, or too complex to be processed by traditional database technology. In our increasingly digital world, data production has skyrocketed in recent years, to the point where there is now 2.7 zettabytes of data in existence, growing at a rate of 60 percent per year. Forrester puts the current rate of growth of corporate data at 94 percent. But rather than being overwhelmed by the growth on such a massive scale, the IT industry has developed methods of storing and analysing this data, giving enterprises access to valuable information they did not even know they had. Big data is already and integral part of corporate giants such as Google, Walmart, Amazon and Facebook, but big data solutions are becoming increasingly more affordable.
Prediction: Expect to see enterprise beginning to harness the potential of big data. However these organisations will have to grapple with issues such as the governance and management of big data, as well as finding people with the right combination of skills to work with it and make the most of what it has to offer.
8. Wearable tech industry to grow, but Google Glasses still some way off
Wearable technology hit the headlines in April this year when Google made its announcement about Google Glasses, developed as part of Project Glass. But wearable technology is already here. Particularly popular at the moment are devices that allow users to track training sessions and fitness data such as Nike+ and Jawbone Up. While these sorts of devices are easing consumers into the world of wearable tech, researchers and developers are more excited about the possibilities of head-mounted displays, such as Google Glasses. The buzz around these products was fuelled when fashion designer Diane von Furstenberg had her models wear prototypes of the Google Glasses to film the audience at her runway show at New York Fashion Week. Despite the hype, these products are unlikely to become available to the general public in the immediate future, with Google saying that Google Glasses will not be available for general sale until at least 2014.
Prediction: We'll be hearing a lot more about wearable technology as the market grows. Juniper Research estimates that by 2014, the wearable tech market will be worth over US$1.5 billion, almost double its current worth. However don't expect to see people walking down the street in their Google shades just yet.
[1] [2012] HCA 16
[2] ACCC v Allergy Pathway Pty Ltd (No 2) [2011] FCA 74
[3] Case number 0271/12 (Fosters Australia, Asia & Pacific - VB), 11 July 2012
[4] Trkulja v Google (No 5) [2012] VSC 533
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